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Purchase originations expected to drive mortgages forward next year

For most of 2014, the focus in the mortgage industry has been on the fact that new home loans being issued to both shoppers and current owners has been trending downward for some time, largely due to rising mortgage rates and prices. However, it seems that next year will actually see improvement in origination numbers overall, as hopeful buyers come into the market more heavily than they did this year.

In all, the total value of mortgage originations seen nationwide is expected to tick up 7 percent overall next year, rising to some $1.19 trillion, according to the latest projections from the Mortgage Bankers Association. However, it should be noted that this number is likely to be driven entirely by upticks in purchase originations, which are likely to increase 15 percent to some $731 billion, up from $635 billion this year. Further, for 2016 it seems that this number will keep rising, to $791 billion.

"We are projecting that home purchase originations will increase in 2015 as the US economy continues on its current path of stronger growth, job gains and declining unemployment," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president for research and industry technology. "The job market has shown sustained improvement this year; with robust monthly increases in both payroll jobs and job openings. We are forecasting that strong job growth, coupled with still low mortgage rates, should translate to an increase in home sales and purchase originations."

Refinances expected to take another hit
Meanwhile, it seems that current owners will be a little more dissuaded from getting into the housing market over the next two years, the report said. Originations for this type of mortgage are slated to fall some 3 percent in 2015 – to $457 billion from this year's $471 billion – and drop once again to $379 billion in 2016. Altogether, that means originations are only likely to hit $1.17 trillion two years from now, constituting a decline in overall numbers.

With that said, though, experts are actually hopeful that numbers for refinances will actually increase over the next several months, the report said. This is because falling rates in recent weeks could serve to attract more people to the market.

Still, though, mortgage lenders themselves will likely have to do more in the coming weeks, months, and years to bring a larger number of people to the market overall, because declining affordability could continue to take a toll on public perception.

By: Equity National   October 22, 2014     Closing

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